Federal Reserve weakens expectations of interest rate cut to target 2% inflation
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would not change interest rates, but signaled it would not rush to lower rates, saying it needed greater confidence that "high" inflation would slowly decline to its 2% target. Additionally, given the robust growth of the economy and strong employment growth, it appears unlikely that interest rates will be lowered in an untimely manner.
“The Committee does not expect to reduce the scope of this limit until greater confidence is gained that inflation will move sustainably toward 2%,” the Federal Reserve Bank said in a monetary policy statement on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Bank President Jerome Powell has played down hopes of a March rate cut, saying he does not expect a sufficient level of confidence until March.
“Based on today’s meeting, I don’t think it will be time to identify that at the March meeting,” Powell said when responding to a question about whether the Fed would likely cut in March. But Powell emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data.
The odds for a March cut have fallen slightly to 30%, down from 65% before the statement, but some economists still remain hopeful there will be a rate cut sooner rather than later.
“We expect a rate cut of 25 basis points in March, but we may push our forecast to May if job market data due on Friday is stronger than expected,” Jefferies said on Wednesday.
Federal restrictive bias lies in the background
There is no need to rush to cut interest rates, but the statement did set out a proviso that marked the removal of previous comments of "further policy strengthening" stipulated in December remarks.
“FOMC members no longer have a constraining bias,” Morgan Stanley said Wednesday, noting that a June cut is still possible.
“We expect the first rate cut in June, and a total of four 25 basis point cuts this year, followed by a further 200 basis point cut in 2025,” they added. This is higher than the Bundesbank's forecast for three interest rate cuts in December.
Although federal job market data showed a slowdown in economic activity over the past few months, it still indicates a strong job market and the Federal Reserve expects inflation to reach its 2% target, with gradual cuts without causing a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. It was expected and gave strength to Ohm.
The Bundesbank appeared to support this view, acknowledging in a statement that "risks to employment and achieving inflation targets are increasingly balanced."
While the federal jubilant landing is giving a boost to the French language, risks to inflation and job market targets are increasingly hanging in the balance. The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, maintained the benchmark interest rate at 5.50% from 5.25%.
Recent economic data prompted the FOMC to decide to maintain firm monetary policy for its fifth consecutive meeting. Data showing slowing inflation and a still-strong job market are expected to keep unemployment from rising sharply as the Federal Reserve regulates inflation to its 2% target.
The Federal Reserve welcomed a decline in inflation over the past year, with its core personal consumption expenditures price index falling below 3% annually in December for the first time since April 2021. However, the Bundesbank noted that the pace of inflation remains "high".