Following President Trump's announcement, made local time on the 21st, declaring an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, there is a growing possibility that the situation in the Middle East will return to the negotiating table. This decision, made just hours before the previously set ceasefire deadline was set to expire, is interpreted as a measure demonstrating the will to continue peace talks between the two countries. However, since the official stance of the Iranian side remains unclear, concerns have been raised that the effect of easing military tensions may be limited to a temporary measure. The fact that military attacks on Iran have been suspended upon request from the Pakistani government indicates that Pakistan has been playing a mediator role in the conflict process and that Islamabad is making efforts to hold additional negotiations.

However, this ceasefire extension carries a strong unilateral character from the US, leaving uncertainty about its actual effectiveness. The Iranian leadership has not issued an immediate official statement, and Tasnim News, linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps, denied the request for the ceasefire extension itself and reaffirmed its stance that it can break through the US naval blockade by force. A deputy to Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, also characterized this announcement as a "stalling tactic for a surprise attack," revealing strong distrust. This suggests that trust between the two sides is still far from restored, and the prevailing analysis is that a simple ceasefire declaration is insufficient to completely shift the nature of the war.

Separately from the ceasefire measures, the US maintains its policy of keeping the blockade of Iranian ports through the Navy, which Iran regards as an act of war in all but name. This issue has emerged as a core point of contention in the negotiation process, and combined with the fact that the two sides showed differences of opinion regarding participation in the second peace talks scheduled for recent days in Islamabad, it has further expanded the uncertainty of negotiations. President Trump is evaluated as having retreated a step from his originally tough statements; he had previously hinted at the possibility of attacking major infrastructure within Iran, such as power plants, but appears to have changed his stance considering international criticism and the need for negotiations. The UN has also expressed concern, pointing out the potential for violations of international humanitarian law regarding threats to attack civilian facilities.

President Trump mentioned that the internal power structure in Iran is divided, revealing an awareness of the US holding the upper hand in negotiations. This statement is interpreted as reflecting the recent situation where some members of the Iranian leadership have been eliminated through US and Israeli military operations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the decision to extend the ceasefire, expressing hope that both sides will adhere to it and lead to a permanent peace agreement. However, the schedule for the second round of talks has not yet been confirmed, and given the significant differences between the two sides' positions, it remains unclear whether a resolution will be reached in the short term. In the market, the situation is evaluated as one where signs of easing geopolitical risks coexist with continued uncertainty, and it is expected that whether the ceasefire extension leads to substantive negotiation progress will act as a key variable in future fluctuations in the global economy and energy markets.