While Samsung Electronics' semiconductor business is being driven by the strong performance of its memory division, analysis suggests that it will still take a considerable amount of time to resolve the losses in its foundry division. Nevertheless, the cooperation relationship between Samsung and Tesla regarding AI-dedicated chips is emerging as the most important variable that can indicate the turnaround of the foundry division, as the partnership expands beyond current production levels to include development of next-generation products.
According to industry sources on the 26th, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, officially unveiled upgrade plans for the company's AI4 chip at the financial results presentation held on the 22nd. While he expects mass production to begin in the second half of 2027, he emphasized that the core issue is whether Samsung Electronics is currently engaged in design modifications for the chip and can ultimately switch to a mass production system. The industry interprets this as Tesla effectively delegating the production of the improved AI4 product to Samsung Foundry. This product is expected to be significantly superior in capacity and computational performance compared to the existing model launched in 2023, and it is speculated to be named 'AI4+' or 'AI4.1'.
The cooperation between the two companies is already expanding to the development of next-generation chips. Samsung Electronics has decided to participate in the production of Tesla's next-generation chips, AI5 and AI6, and it is reported that the order volume for AI6, officially announced last July, is approximately 2.3 trillion won. This corresponds to the largest-ever contract for Samsung's semiconductor division based on a single customer. Currently, the existing AI4 is being produced at a 7-nanometer process at the Gwangmyeong (Pyungtaek) Foundry line, and there is a high possibility that the upgraded product will also be manufactured at the Pyungtaek factory. In contrast, AI5 and AI6 are scheduled to be produced at a 2-nanometer process at the Taylor plant in Texas, with reports stating that while AI5 will share volume with Taiwan's TSMC, AI6 will be handled exclusively by Samsung Electronics. These chips are AI semiconductors developed by Tesla specifically for autonomous driving and are used crucially to implement the vehicle's full autonomous driving functions.
The background to Samsung Foundry securing successive Tesla orders includes the trust built during the production of the existing AI4 and the fact that yield and performance in fine processes have gradually entered a stable zone. Yield refers to the ratio of actually functioning products among semiconductors etched onto wafers; if this figure is low, it is difficult to generate profits even if the factory is operating. CEO Musk recently took to his X account to announce the tape-out of AI5, expressing gratitude to both Samsung Electronics and TSMC. Tape-out signifies the first step after completing semiconductor design and entering prototype production. In line with this, the Taylor plant also held a equipment installation ceremony on the 24th, and it is expected to commence initial operations by the end of this year and begin full-scale production of Tesla-related orders next year.
The issue is the time gap. The provisional operating profit for Samsung Electronics in Q1 2026, announced in early this month, was 5.72 trillion won, but it is estimated that approximately 95% of this, or about 5.4 trillion won, came from the memory division. In contrast, the non-memory division, including foundry, is observed to have posted losses in the single-digit trillion won range, and securities analysts forecast that annual losses in the non-memory sector will reach around 3 to 4 trillion won this year. Ultimately, the Tesla effect will have to be reflected more significantly not at the time of contract signing, but when actual shipment and revenue recognition begin. For this reason, the industry sees the turning point for performance improvement as being after 2027, when operations at the Taylor plant coincide with shipments to customers. Samsung Electronics is scheduled to announce detailed quarterly results by division on the 30th, and it is likely that questions will focus on the specific start-up timeline of the Taylor plant and the status of cooperation with customers. This trend is expected to be an important test to determine whether Samsung Foundry can recover its advanced process competitiveness beyond simply reducing losses, using large customers as a stepping stone.