The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for August is likely to rise again at a level of 3–4% compared with the same month last year. The forecast released by Korea Investment Securities on August 13, 2026 indicated that the U.S. CPI could climb to 3.6%–3.7%. This aligns with market expectations and reflects the volatility in the overall price trend of the economy.
The analysis is based on the headline CPI for July. In that month, the figure rose 0.1% YoY to 3.4%, matching the market prediction. It emphasized that energy prices have little impact on inflation; although energy costs fell by 1.5% in July, even with the rise in gas and other fuel costs, international crude price decline has eased inflationary pressure.
Whether the upward trend continues into August is uncertain. Researcher Moon predicted that if international oil prices remain below $80 per barrel on a WTI basis, the headline CPI will again pick up a rise from August onward. He provided an estimate based on data released on the 10th and noted that uncertainty remains high in price dynamics due to the level of energy prices.
The possibility that inflationary pressure could increase by year‑end was also indicated. Even if energy costs stay low after the first half of this year, maintaining similar levels will lead to a higher YoY rise, potentially causing a further surge at year‑end. This could significantly affect U.S. interest rate policy and financial market expectations.