The KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices appear likely to resume an upward trend this week (18‑21). NH투자증권’s 16th‑day outlook was that KOSPI would fluctuate between 6,200 and 7,200, citing last week’s continuous gains and the fact that it touched 7,000 on the 15th. In particular, after a brief dip around 6,970, it recovered at that level.
연구원 says that foreign‑institutional buying is helping push KOSPI up, adding that after the U.S. CPI for July was released and the FOMC in September is expected to cut rates, foreign investors are likely to buy securities instead of cash, a factor that could help the market rebound. After last month’s adjustments, both indices rose within the day, and with no major signal from rate‑cutting or inflation, gains appear set to continue.
삼성증권 수석연구원 (Kim Jong-min) notes that economic indicators show easing inflation and that the economy has softened in its stimulus; he added that recent earnings releases from Big Tech and Neo‑Cloud companies have increased confidence in AI profitability. He also said that although long‑term rates may remain high, as long as no sharp “rate‑cut” event occurs, the market can continue to rise using existing momentum.
U.S. Treasury yields remain volatile. As of the 14th, U.S. 10‑year notes were at 4.69%, and 30‑year notes at 5.27%, a rise of 5 and 6 basis points respectively; the dollar index fell 0.2%. According to CME’s forecast, the probability that FOMC will lower the policy rate is higher than the previous day, but expectations of a rate cut are not greatly altered.
Short‑term variables include U.S.–Iran negotiations. President Trump says he will declare an “Hurmuz” (likely a typo for "Harbuz"?) ceasefire soon, and Iran’s foreign minister said that maintaining the ceasefire and making it hard for the U.S. to enforce would be difficult. In this context, volatility exists but there is limited chance that current policy will sharply change.