The Korean Bank gathered expert opinions that it might keep the policy rate unchanged as of August. A survey by Yonhap News of six economists found that four expected no change to the current level, while two suggested a possible 0.25‑percentage‑point hike.
In the scenario of maintaining the status quo, the key point is “adjusting” – i.e., tightening. After raising the policy rate in July, there is a high likelihood that the effect of the previous increase will be evident by August. The consumer price inflation in July has been quite mild and the won‑dollar exchange rate has stabilized, indicating that the burden of a continuous hike has eased. Senior Board Member Jang Min from the Bank’s Research Institute emphasized that if “the possibility of a small rise” emerges, the central bank can still convey to markets that another increase is feasible even while it keeps the current level.
On the other hand, a continuous hike does not automatically signal an easing wave. Even if the status quo is maintained, should two or more experts suggest a modest rise, the Board may have room to consider an additional hike. Economist Park Jeong‑woo pointed out that after a continuous hike in July–August there could be a residual effect into the fourth quarter, and that another increase might come again in the first quarter of next year.
The Bank’s and Governor’s views are similar. Jang Min forecasted an additional hike in October; Vice‑Governor An Ye‑ha reported that after a hike in October the level could stay as is or rise by 0.25 points. The policy rate was expected to be around 3.00%–3.25%, and there was also a projection that another increase might occur in February of next year.
The U.S. central bank’s policy direction appeared less aggressive than Korea’s, but the Fed had already anticipated a status quo at its September open‑market meeting. In addition, markets must keep in mind that the timing of a rate decision and the possibility of a rise may shift with new information.