The Korean central bank announced its forecast for this year’s domestic gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in February; by May it had revised the figure upward to 2.6%. However, the real growth rates for the first and second quarters were considerably higher than the figures released by the bank, coming close to 3.0%. The first quarter recorded a 1.8% increase over the previous quarter, while the second quarter added 0.6%, each exceeding twice the February forecast.
A key factor appears to be that the semiconductor industry performed stronger than expected. Semiconductor exports and investment in the first and second quarters registered 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, surpassing expectations. Capital investment also grew more modestly than the bank’s forecast, though the difference was relatively small. This phenomenon is interpreted as the increase in semiconductor exports having a positive influence on capital investment.
Major global banks have announced growth rates higher than the central bank’s revised May outlook. For example, JP Morgan and Citi already projected a late‑half‑year growth of 3%, while Moody’s adjusted from 1.8% to 3.5%. The central bank’s forthcoming forecast released on the 27th is likely to be raised above 3% in the first half, indicating that the domestic economy is growing at an above‑average rate.
The discrepancy between the forecast and the actual figure is not only a difference in numbers but also has implications for policy. The central bank has relied heavily on growth forecasts in monetary policy and benchmark interest rates decisions; the divergence suggests that policy stance may need to be reconsidered. Strengthening analysis capacity and expert manpower in the semiconductor industry will enhance forecasting accuracy, ensuring credibility of future growth estimates.