Yoon Jun Powerd (Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee) reaffirmed in a speech at the 연속 회 that the U.S. benchmark interest rate could rise. He analyzed inflation and growth, indicated a long‑term upward trend for rates, and markets raised the probability of a hike to over 60%.
First, Powerd emphasized that if core inflation surpasses the 2% target, the benchmark rate must be increased. He explained that the current rate (3.5–3.75%) does not impose excessive constraints on the economy, and noted that both agriculture and housing markets are not overly burdened by rates.
Second, Powerd evaluated inflation indicators after July FOMC and the policy stance. He analyzed PCE and CPI, stating that the current benchmark rate does not impose undue strain on the economy. While he offered no concrete evidence for a long‑term hike, markets interpreted his remarks as a hint toward a short‑term increase.
Third, Powerd was evaluated as placing emphasis on the role of speeches in signaling. He said “no specific mention” and emphasized that the speech provides clarity on the possibility of a rate hike.
Fourth, his remarks affected the financial sector and markets, especially long‑term rate expectations and inflation outlooks. Accordingly, investors adjusted positions around the September meeting to prepare for a possible rate increase.