With tensions in the Middle East easing, positive waves are spreading across global financial markets. Expectations are growing that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be extended and that the second round of negotiations between Iran and the United States will resume in Pakistan, leading to a continued decline in crude oil prices. Additionally, as uncertainty surrounding monetary policy diminishes due to the increased likelihood of confirming the Chairperson of the U.S. Federal Reserve, interest rates have also been adjusted downward. Notably, the Justice Department's decision to halt its investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair has increased the probability of the Senate approving Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Chair, providing significant relief to market sentiment.

Next week promises to be the most chaotic and important trading week of the year so far. Major central banks around the world, including those in Europe, the UK, and Japan, are scheduled to discuss important monetary policy topics in succession, drawing focused attention from market participants. Furthermore, five of the seven Magnificent Seven tech giants—Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft—plan to release their quarterly earnings. Alongside these, key economic indicators such as the first-quarter U.S. GDP and March Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data will be released. These economic factors will serve as critical variables determining market direction.

In the semiconductor sector, new growth drivers leveraging CPUs are beginning to take full effect. The New York Stock Exchange opened with major indexes rising slightly on April 24, and Intel led the market with a 27% surge in the early trading session after reporting better-than-expected results. Revenue from data centers and AI-related segments grew by 22% due to increased CPU demand, reinforcing the perception that CPUs play a central role in AI inference and agent tasks. Foundry business revenue also increased by 16%. Major investment firms have re-evaluated Intel as a beneficiary of a "CPU renaissance," significantly raising their target prices. Amidst a rapidly evolving AI environment, forecasts suggest that the share of CPUs could overtake GPUs, while geopolitical factors have further recognized Intel's strategic value as a core U.S. chip manufacturer.

Conversely, semiconductor stocks have risen for 18 consecutive days, surging by approximately 40% and showing signs of overheating, sparking intense debate over the need for short-term corrections. Some research institutions point out that historically, following periods of extended consecutive gains in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, declines have eventually arrived, warning of an overbought condition. While analyses note that the technical indicator RSI has reached the 85 level, past cases show that upward trends have persisted despite high readings. On the other hand, other institutions draw parallels to the dot-com bubble, suggesting the possibility of short-term accelerated gains. Firms like Goldman Sachs have noted that while the market capitalization share of AI-related companies has reached historical highs, this also introduces inherent market vulnerabilities. Amid these divergent perspectives, investors must carefully consider the signals conveyed by earnings reports and macroeconomic variables over the coming months.