As the New Year’s holiday approaches, uncertainty regarding the Korean stock market is increasing. NH Investment Securities forecasts this week (the 21st–23rd) that KOSPI will trade between 6,400 and 7,500 points, emphasizing both upside and downside possibilities. The analysis cites easing U.S.–China relations and a reduction in China’s semiconductor restrictions as key factors.
Ahead of the holiday, foreign participation is expected to rebound, so last week (the 18th) KOSPI finished at 6,894.23 points. NH Investment Securities noted that the loosening of U.S.–Iran geopolitical risk and China's easing of semiconductor regulation are upside drivers. In particular, the meeting between President Donald Trump in Washington on the 24th and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is highlighted; if U.S. regulatory relaxations for memory semiconductors materialize, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could see significant benefits.
The policy stances of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Japan’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) add to uncertainty. Fed set its benchmark rate at 3.75–4% in the September FOMC meeting, while BOJ raised rates from 1.0% to 1.25%. Such tightening can trigger short‑term volatility in the stock market.
NH Investment Securities believes that if the holiday period sees a rebound, it could be an opportunity to lift KOSPI. The research notes that “if the holiday’s pre‑holiday surge turns into a partial reversal, after the holiday the market may see a gradual rebound,” and projects that the average KOSPI returns in 10 years before and after the holiday are –0.42% to +0.68%.
Based on shareholders’ net income, it presents earnings consensus for KOSPI-listed companies. According to NH Investment Securities, the average earnings of listed firms this year is KRW 80.630 trillion, rising to KRW 104.750 trillion next year. These levels would lower the P/E ratio and project a price‑earnings ratio (PER) of about 5.5 times. The analysis should help understand KOSPI’s future trend.