The global market for key minerals is showing rapid volatility and revealing new trends. Major resource-rich nations in Africa and Asia are strengthening export controls and reducing production quotas under the pretext of protecting domestic industries, leading to warnings that raw material prices will not easily decline. This is expected to exacerbate the cost burden faced by industrial systems based on advanced technologies. In particular, the supply chains of substances such as lithium, nickel, and tungsten, which are called the blood of modern industry, are being controlled by political variables, leading to increased instability in the global economy.
Zimbabwe has accelerated its ban on lithium exports by 11 months and has already implemented it, directly impacting the global supply chain. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which accounts for about 7% of global supply, has triggered price increases. According to Agusto Media's tally, the spot price of lithium concentrate surged rapidly over a short period, reaching highs in some transactions and causing market chaos. Indonesia has also drastically reduced nickel ore production quotas and introduced a managed pricing system, building a national strategic defense line. With the formation of a regional cartel in this area, which handles the majority of global nickel supply along with the Philippines, analyses have suggested that nickel prices will stabilize within a certain range, leaving market participants in a situation where they must respond to unexpected price fluctuations.
China is institutionalizing an asymmetric strategy favorable to its own country and advancing export controls. The Ministry of Commerce published a list restricting exports of tungsten, antimony, silver, etc., to state-owned trading enterprises, showing off its market dominance. Thanks to China's market share of more than half of antimony mining and production, and its advantage in refining and processing networks, the export volume of major products is showing a declining trend, accelerating supply shortages. In particular, the introduction of extraterritorial regulations targeting overseas manufactured products containing rare earth elements from China has caused ripples in the global supply chain. The concentration of domestic spot markets by Chinese companies has led to intensified lithium shortages and strengthened price support lines. Even experts who relied on traditional fundamental analysis are acknowledging the structural changes in the market and adjusting their forecasts upward, as a regime change is becoming a reality.
The defense and high-tech industries, as well as the clean energy sector, have also suffered from rising mineral prices. Supply chain instability of antimony and tungsten, which are essential for night-vision devices and armor-piercing ammunition, has increased procurement risks for Western defense industries, and the supply and demand of silver used in solar panels and electronic components are also expected to be greatly affected. According to the International Energy Agency's model, if a geopolitical disruption occurs in the key mineral supply chain, battery pack prices could surge immediately by 40% to 50%, raising concerns that it could shrink investment in green industry equipment and increase the risk of stagflation. South Korea, which lacks resources and has a high proportion of advanced manufacturing industries that require key minerals such as semiconductors and batteries, cannot be free from the influence of resource nationalism 2.0, and urgent tasks have emerged to escape the structure of dependence on China and build a multilateral mineral agreement network.