Experts have analyzed that the shock of Abu Dhabi's decision to forfeit its membership in the international oil cartel OPEC and OPEC+ will be limited to the global crude market for the foreseeable future. However, concerns have simultaneously been raised that the supply management system and price control capabilities among oil-producing countries could be significantly weakened in the long term. Major financial institution HSBC forecasts in its latest report that even if the UAE completely detaches from the cartel starting this month, immediate fluctuations in supply volumes will not be significant. This is because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, making it difficult for Gulf region oil exports to be halted and for production expansion to immediately connect to increased market supply.
The UAE was one of the most important oil-producing countries within the cartel, but this withdrawal decision was made amidst heightened geopolitical tensions with the United States and Israel colliding with Iran. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blockaded since the end of February, causing a critical bottleneck that prevents Middle Eastern crude oil from moving to the global market. HSBC has evaluated that under these export restrictions, the UAE's additional production capacity is very limited. Although ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi state-owned oil company, can transport crude oil to Fujairah Port via a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, its processing capacity of about 1.8 million barrels per day is already nearing maximum utilization. Therefore, it appears that the impact of the UAE's production increase on the global market will be negligible in the short term.
However, the situation could completely change if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage. At that time, the UAE could gradually increase production by stepping outside the cartel's production quotas, and ADNOC is expected to have a high probability of expanding its daily production volume to over 4.5 million barrels. This is a figure that greatly exceeds the approximate 3.4 million barrels allocated to the cartel as of May 2026, signifying a massive supply potential. HSBC predicts that such production expansion plans will not be realized immediately but will be implemented gradually over the next 12 to 18 months. This aligns with ADNOC's strategy to carefully regulate production in line with market demand and price fluctuations, and is analyzed to contribute to replenishing recently decreased global crude oil inventories.
In the long term, concerns are growing that the UAE's withdrawal could inflict serious damage to the cohesion and credibility within the cartel. The departure of a key Gulf oil producer could act as a major burden in maintaining supply reduction agreements, and it cannot be ruled out that this may lead to a decline in the implementation rate of production cuts by other member countries. In particular, the fact that the UAE is expanding its production capacity through massive investments worth $150 billion by 2030 is interpreted as an intention to actively monetize resources without future quota constraints. This is identified as a major factor exacerbating cracks in the interests within the cartel.
HSBC warned that if discipline among member countries weakens, the cartel may struggle to manage prices stably in scenarios of demand slowdown or increased supply from non-cartel countries. However, the actual impact may vary depending on how other oil-producing countries respond and the market supply and demand situation, leaving uncertainty still present. Experts emphasize that attention must be paid to how geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring will intertwine, and advise that preparation for long-term market structural changes is needed rather than short-term supply shortages.