U.S. stocks opened on April 30, 2026, with global investors' attention focused on robust economic indicators amid sticky inflation and the race for artificial intelligence technology. Real GDP grew 2% year over year in the first quarter, slightly below expectations, but showed a healthy trend with consumer spending and corporate investment rising together. In particular, AI-related investment surged, pushing corporate investment to its highest level in three years, while unemployment claims dropped to levels not seen since 1969, indicating a stabilizing labor market. However, the impact of the Iran war has slowed the pace of inflation easing, with consumer spending growth rising to 3.2%, so concerns of an overheating economy have not completely disappeared. Nevertheless, overall economic fundamentals are being evaluated positively.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East are directly affecting energy prices and global supply chains, intensifying international geopolitical attention. Reports emerged that the U.S. Central Command was preparing a military operation plan to strike Iranian facilities and reporting it to President Trump, drawing attention to the President's remarks that a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be more effective. Alongside forecasts that military pressure could be re-evaluated as a negotiation card if prolonged, diplomatic mediation by Pakistan has reignited the spark for peace negotiations, prompting a search for diplomatic solutions rather than war expansion. As a result, Brent crude prices adjusted downward from the $120 level to below $110, and interest rate hikes have also slowed, helping the energy market regain stability.
Earnings reports from technology companies are becoming a watershed moment that clearly distinguishes winners and losers in the age of AI. Major hyperscalers such as Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, backed by strong first-quarter results, have significantly raised their full-year AI-related capital expenditure forecasts from $61 billion to $64 billion and then further to $71 billion. The key factors are that cloud revenues far exceeded market expectations, backlog orders more than doubled due to supply shortages, and margin improvements have been proven. Conversely, companies that do not sell AI infrastructure and services externally have failed to gain investors' trust due to uncertainty around revenue generation and monetization pathways, leading to sharp stock declines. One such company even resorted to issuing up to $25 billion in debt to justify its massive investments, but market concerns remain unresolved.
As structural demand in the AI industry has been confirmed, investment is actively expanding into related hardware sectors. Caterpillar's earnings showed a strong upswing due to surging demand for data center power equipment, while Qualcomm, which develops custom semiconductors, recorded double-digit stock price gains. Investment demand is heating up across the entire AI ecosystem, including semiconductors, test equipment, data center construction, power infrastructure, and cooling systems. Moreover, non-tech stocks such as pharmaceuticals and financial services have also reported robust results, leading to a market-wide rally. This is being evaluated as a clear signal that the AI industry is deeply rooted in the real economy, going beyond a mere tech boom.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the chairmanship succession issue have also become major topics in the market. The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady as expected, but revealed an unusual internal division of opinion, with three members expressing dissenting views on the timing of future rate cuts. In response, the market is betting that the Fed will maintain rate freezes throughout the year and that rate hikes may be possible next year. Chairman Jerome Powell, who will step down from the chairmanship on May 15 but remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028, demonstrated his resolve to withstand a strong labor market and sticky inflation. These decisions are acting as important variables that dampen early expectations for rate cuts and will force a re-evaluation of the future direction of monetary policy.