Late last week, a sharp drop in long‑term U.S. Treasury yields—from 4.70% to 4.62%—sent shock waves through financial markets. The fall pushed up bond prices and encouraged investors to lower long‑term rates, exerting downward pressure on the dollar. As a result, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 98.60, slipping slightly, while the won weakened to about 1,380 per dollar.
The yield decline and the dollar’s movement also spilled over into commodity markets. TradingView’s benchmark gold price rose to $4,657 per ounce, approaching the resistance level near $4,700, which caused a short‑term pullback in gold prices. The weaker dollar lowered the cost of buying gold, pulling its price down. Meanwhile, the U.S. is looking for ways to ease inflation pressure while expanding long‑term growth, so future inflation indicators could affect the dollar‑gold relationship.
Oil prices continued their slide toward the end of the week. Brent crude fell more than 3%, dropping to about $89 per barrel, and WTI slid to $82. The decline in oil prices aligns with U.S. policy aimed at lowering energy‑price pressure, giving markets a more optimistic view on consumer confidence and GDP indicators.
Hence expectations for major economic data releases have risen. On the 26th, the PCE price index and Q2 domestic GDP will be released, prompting markets to readjust expectations of rate hikes or dollar‑gold price moves. In addition, it appears that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will convey messages from a Jackson Hole meeting, which may keep uncertainty around long‑term inflation targets and monetary policy direction alive.