The global market for key minerals is showing rapid volatility and revealing new dynamics. Major resource-holding countries in Africa and Asia are strengthening export controls and cutting production quotas, citing the protection of domestic industries as justification. There are warnings that raw material prices will not easily fall. This is expected to exacerbate the cost burden that technology-driven industrial systems must face. In particular, the supply chains of substances called the "blood of modern industry," such as lithium, nickel, and tungsten, are being controlled by political variables, leading to increased instability in the global economy.
Zimbabwe has accelerated its ban on lithium exports by 11 months and has already put it into effect, directly impacting the global supply chain. By blocking Zimbabwean exports, which account for approximately 7% of global supply, the country has triggered price surges. According to Agusta Media's tally, the spot price of lithium concentrate surged sharply in a short period, reaching peaks in some transactions, plunging the market into chaos. Indonesia has also drastically reduced its nickel ore production quotas and introduced a managed pricing regime, building a national strategic defense line. The formation of a cartel in this region, which together with the Philippines accounts for the majority of global nickel supply, has led to analyses suggesting that nickel prices will stabilize within a certain range. Consequently, market participants are faced with situations where they must respond to unexpected price fluctuations.
China is institutionalizing asymmetric strategies favorable to its own interests and upgrading export controls. The Ministry of Commerce has unveiled a list restricting exports of tungsten, antimony, silver, and other materials to state-owned trading enterprises, flaunting its market dominance. Thanks to China's market share of more than half of antimony mining production and its superiority in refining and processing networks, the export volumes of major products are showing a decline trend, accelerating supply shortages. In particular, the introduction of extraterritorial regulations that also target overseas manufactured products containing Chinese rare earth components has sent shockwaves through the global supply chain. The concentration of Chinese companies in the domestic spot market has led to an intensification of lithium shortages and a strengthening of price support lines. Even experts who relied on existing fundamental analysis are acknowledging structural changes in the market and revising their forecasts upward, as a regime change is becoming reality.
The defense, high-tech, and clean energy sectors have all suffered from rising mineral prices. Supply chain instability of antimony and tungsten, essential for night vision goggles and armor-piercing shells, has exacerbated procurement risks for Western defense industries, and silver used in solar panels and electronic components is also expected to be significantly affected. According to the International Energy Agency's model, if geopolitical disconnection occurs in the core mineral supply chain, battery pack prices could surge immediately by 40% to 50%, raising concerns that this could discourage investment in green industry equipment and increase the risk of stagflation. South Korea, lacking its own resources and having a high proportion of advanced manufacturing industries that rely on key minerals such as semiconductors and batteries, cannot be free from the influence of "resource nationalism 2.0," and urgent tasks have emerged for escaping dependence on China and building a multilateral mineral agreement network.