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The looming possibility of a Fed rate hike has intensified concerns about the global crypto‑asset market’s exposure to sharp volatility, placing Bitcoin on the brink of a potential crash. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is weighing its next policy decision, Bitcoin’s price has continued its downward trajectory from just above $80,000, recording three consecutive weeks of decline and now touching the key resistance level at $82,500, raising the possibility of further downside. Market participants are projecting that if the Fed follows a dovish stance, Bitcoin could either rebound to around $82,500 or slide down toward $76,000.

The past week saw Bitcoin fall 2.43% and record three consecutive weekly declines. It has tested the $80,000 level three times; on the 21st it briefly touched $84,900 but failed to sustain the rally, falling again near $79,100 on the 24th. The weakness in Bitcoin reflects a combination of capital outflows from institutional investors and macro‑economic uncertainty. In the U.S., Bitcoin‑related ETFs pulled roughly $636 million on the 22nd, the largest single‑day outflow since June.

NASDAQ’s technology‑focused index, which is heavily weighted toward tech stocks, fell 2.6%. Rising commodity prices have dampened risk‑seeking sentiment across markets. Brent crude rose 5.66% to $116.72 per barrel, fuelling inflation worries. According to a research report from Wintermute, “if Bitcoin were to recover, it would need to move back above the $82,000–$82,500 range.”

With an 86% probability that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged, many market participants view the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in this meeting as high. If the Fed signals additional tightening, U.S. Treasury yields could rise, amplifying selling pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, if the Fed adopts a more accommodative stance, Bitcoin may regain footing near $82,500. The forthcoming release of U.S. PCE inflation data on the 29th also carries weight; even if the Fed signals easing, if inflation still exceeds expectations, rate‑hike fears could resurface.

The alignment between tech stocks and tech‑related ETFs appears to be a risk factor that heightens downside threats. According to Wintermute, about 85% of leveraged ETF holdings are concentrated in AI and semiconductor themes. If sharp price adjustments occur in these sectors, the forced unwinding of leveraged positions could spread selling pressure to other risk assets such as Bitcoin. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s recent volatility may be more driven by macro‑economic conditions and institutional cash flows than by its own fundamentals. Wintermute does not forecast a long‑term downside for Bitcoin but cautions that a cautious approach is needed until the Fed meets and Bitcoin potentially recovers from $82,500.